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Minding Ag's Business 08/12 17:37
Leaning More on FSA Data, NASS Again Boosts Acreage in August Reports
NASS bumped up both corn and soybean planted acreage by 1.4 million acres
each in Wednesday's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) reports. Among the reasons for higher acreage estimates is
NASS relied more on acreage data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA).
Chris Clayton
Farm Business Editor
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) explained on Wednesday
that one driver for increasing corn and soybean acreage was that the statistics
service relied more on Farm Service Agency (FSA) acreage reports.
NASS bumped up both corn and soybean planted acreage by 1.4 million acres
each in Wednesday's Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates (WASDE) reports. Among the reasons for higher acreage estimates is
that NASS relied more on acreage data from FSA that was also released on
Wednesday.
"This year, NASS has made greater use of acreage information reported to
USDA's Farm Service Agency (FSA), allowing USDA to build on information
producers have already provided while focusing the survey on the information
only producers can provide -- crop yields and current growing conditions," NASS
stated in a news release before the WASDE and Crop Production reports were
issued.
The news release also emphasized the importance of farmers participating in
NASS surveys.
"Producer participation in the Agricultural Yield Survey makes a difference
in the quality of USDA's data," said Deputy Secretary Stephen Alexander Vaden.
"This year's August Crop Production report not only reflects data from the
Agricultural Yield Survey, but it also builds on our commitment to producers to
make better use of information already available, reduce unnecessary reporting,
and continue delivering the trusted statistics on which agriculture depends. By
combining producer-reported yield information with FSA acreage data and sound
statistical methods, USDA is improving the quality, objectivity, and integrity
of our agricultural statistics."
USDA leaders are emphasizing a plan to overhaul NASS surveys and data
collection. Last week at Farmfest in Minnesota, Agriculture Secretary Brooke
Rollins said USDA officials would spend August holding roundtables with farmers
at events around the country to discuss how to improve NASS data collection and
the accuracy of crop reports.
At the same time, NASS injected some confusion about its methodology on
social media Wednesday. NASS posted on X early in the day, "For the August Crop
Production report, NASS is using multiple sources beyond survey results,
including satellite and remote sensing data, administrative data from federal
partners, and objective yield measurements to strengthen acreage and yield
estimates."
NASS then deleted that post, but stated that the agency used "normal
procedures for all forecasts included in today's Crop Production report." NASS
added, "In an effort to enhance transparency regarding our procedures at
@usda_nass a tweet was posted earlier highlighting the various data sources
used in August. This was not intended to suggest we were doing anything
different from recent years for today's report."
MARKET SAW POSITIVE SWING
Despite the acreage shifts, corn, soybeans and wheat all saw strong gains on
Wednesday. December corn futures were up 20.25 cents a bushel to nearly $4.81 a
bushel after the WASDE showed strong demand for corn and cut ending stocks to a
projected 1.653 billion bushels.
DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery noted the corn futures increase was the
largest daily gain since President Donald Trump's visit to China in mid-May.
November soybeans also rose 14.5 cents to more than $11.83 a bushel.
September wheat rose 22.5 cents a bushel to more than $6.52 a bushel as well.
NASS ON CORN ACRES
NASS increased corn acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.73 million acres
(ma). The change marked the third consecutive year NASS has revised corn
acreage in the August report.
The report showed farmers in Iowa and Minnesota increased corn planting by
250,000 acres each, while Wisconsin was up 200,000 acres, North Dakota and Ohio
were up 150,000 acres, New York was up 110,000 acres, and Missouri and South
Dakota were each up 100,000 acres.
Conversely, NASS reported Nebraska farmers cut back corn acreage by 350,000
acres.
SOYBEAN ACRES
NASS also increased soybean plantings by 1.4 million acres to 86.79 ma from
the June report.
Missouri's planted soybean acreage was increased by 350,000 acres, followed
by Mississippi at 330,000 acres and Minnesota at 300,000 acres. Arkansas and
Nebraska each saw increases of 250,000 acres, followed by Wisconsin at 150,000
acres.
Illinois, Iowa and South Dakota each cut soybean planting by 200,000 acres,
followed by Ohio, which was down by 150,000 acres, and North Carolina cut
100,000 acres.
COMBINED ACREAGE CHANGES
Looking at combined changes, NASS increased corn and soybean planted acres
in Minnesota by 550,000 and in Missouri by 450,000 acres. Wisconsin saw a
350,000-acre combined acreage increase, and Mississippi acreage rose by 300,000
acres.
In its crop comments, NASS didn't provide much detail on the acreage changes
for crops, but stated multiple times, "Acreage updates were made based on a
thorough review of all available data."
On social media, NASS posted, "Today's estimates were based on acreage
certified as planted by farmers to FSA. Principal crop acres are only up 0.4%
from last year and right in line with recent years."
FSA CROP ACREAGE NUMBERS
The Farm Service Agency (FSA) also released reported crop acreage data on
Wednesday, which comes from farmers who participate in USDA programs. FSA
numbers are always slightly lower than NASS' because a small number of farms
are not enrolled in USDA programs, so they are not required to provide their
information.
FSA reported acreage:
-- Corn, 94.765 million acres.
-- Soybeans, 85.452 million acres.
-- Wheat, 45.984 million acres.
-- Total Cotton, 10.166 million acres.
FSA also reported prevented planting acres at 3.147 million acres, which is
down from 4.866 million acres a year ago.
Chris Clayton can be reached at chris.clayton@dtn.com
Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN
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