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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/06 10:59
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 7 to 8 cents lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are
7 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 21 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 7 to 8 cents lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are
7 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are 12 to 21 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is weaker with the DOW down 105 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with
crude down 2.90. Livestock trade is firmer with hogs leading. Precious metals
are weaker with gold $26.00 lower.
CORN:
Corn futures are 7 to 8 cents lower with early two-sided trade again turning
to selling. Outside market spillover again leaned on trade and there is little
fresh bullish news besides trade being deeply oversold. As we push into
pollination season, rains look to be better for center of the Corn Belt, while
warmer temps and less rain presses into the south and west growing areas with
good rains and limited storm damage in some areas overnight. USDA's weekly Crop
Progress report showed good to excellent down 3% to 64% and 9% poor to very
poor, with silking at 7% versus 9% on average. Ethanol margins are still
strong, even with the pullback in corn offsetting the pullback in unleaded.
Basis will be watched to see if strength holds with spread action remaining
firm. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.82 with lower
Bollinger Band just above that at $5.90 and the 20-day moving average well
above the market at $6.98.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 7 to 10 cents lower with strong early gains fading again
as fund liquidation continues, along with soyoil continuing to press into new
lows. Mea1 is $4.00 to $5.00 higher and oil is 130 to 140 points lower.
Biodiesel margins are very good at the moment, which should bolster crush
recovery into fall with fresh capacity expected to come online then assuming
the margin picture doesn't change significantly. South America is moving toward
post-harvest footing. Double-crop acres are about planted in the U.S. The
weekly crop progress report showed good to excellent down 2% to 63% and 9% poor
to very poor, with 96% emerged, same as average, 16% blooming versus 22% on
average, and 3% setting pods, same as average. Basis is fading a bit at
processors and exporters in recent days with the daily export sales wire
remaining quiet. On the August soybean chart, support is the fresh low at
$14.24 with lower Bollinger Band at $14.35 with the gap at $14.95 the first
level of resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 12 to 21 cents lower with good overnight strength
evaporating again with harvest continuing as negative spillover from row crops
and outside markets continue to spur selling. Plains weather should allow for
harvest to continue moving with few areas slowed by rains as it moves further
north. On USDA's Crop Progress report Tuesday, harvest is 54% complete versus
48% on average, while the spring wheat conditions were 7% better at 66% good to
excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, with 20% headed versus 57% on average. The
dollar continues to hold in the upper end of the range with the strong ruble
helping competitiveness as well. Russia is expected to have near record
supplies with other Black Sea supplies diminished short term with trade waiting
for the next set of import tenders. The KC September chart has support at the
fresh low at $8.32 1/2 scored Wednesday morning with the lower Bollinger Band
at $8.49 and the 20-day moving average still well above the market at $10.52.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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