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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/01 10:52
Corn, Soybean Futures are Lower at Midday; Wheat Flat-Higher
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower; soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower;
wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower; soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower;
wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock market is mixed with
the S&P 10 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 1 point higher. The interest
rate products are weaker. Energy trade is mixed with crude .20 higher and
natural gas .09 lower. Livestock trade is weaker with cattle the downside
leader. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 45.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with fresh lows being scored
for the move before seeing a little better action during the day session as we
got more oversold overnight. On the report Monday, we saw stocks at 4.644
billion bushels (bb) versus 4.641 bb expected and acres at 95.203 million acres
(ma) versus 95.35 ma expected. Ethanol margins have shown little change in
recent days with summer demand likely to shrink inventories. Short-term weather
may trend warmer, but moisture continues to look mostly adequate with the
weekly report showing 73% good to excellent, up 3% and 5% very poor to poor
with 8% silking versus 6% on average. The daily wire was quiet again today.
Basis looks to remain rangebound as the July contract goes into delivery. On
the September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.20 is resistance with the
fresh low at $4.01 1/4 as support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with meal weakness
continuing to drag trade lower as it gets even more deeply oversold. Oil gains
are picking up during the day session with meal down 1.00 to 2.00 lower and oil
is 55 to 65 points higher. On the report, we saw 1.008 bb versus 980 mb
expected with acres at 83.380 ma versus 83.655 ma expected. Weather should
generally remain good for development short term with good to excellent
unchanged at 66% and 7% very poor to poor, with 17% blooming versus 16% on
average, and 3% setting pods versus 2% on average. Basis should remain steady
to softer near term with crusher margins still struggling. The daily wire was
quiet after the recent action. On the September chart, support is the fresh low
at $10.05 3/4 with resistance the 20-day moving average at $10.29.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to 8 cents higher with Chicago action leading as
trade works to come off the lows as harvest moves forward and the cheaper
dollar adds support. On the report, we saw stocks at 851 mb versus 836 mb
expected, and acres were 45.478 ma versus 45.438 ma expected, so no major
changes. The hard red wheat areas should start to catch up somewhat this week
with the weekly report showing winter wheat harvest at 37% versus 42% on
average, with good to excellent 1% lower to 48%, and 20% very poor to poor.
Spring wheat declined 1% to 53% good to excellent, and 14% very poor to poor
with 38% headed versus 37% on average. MATIF wheat is a bit firmer as well. On
the KC September chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.50, with
the lower Bollinger Band at $5.25 as support.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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